2012 is Right Around the Corner…Somebody Better Tell Barack

Posted on October 21, 2010 by


The 2010 election race has been interesting to watch unfold with the flurry of Democrats and Republicans trying to influence voters to different sides.  The negative campaign ads are running rampant and all we hear about anymore is how one candidate is going to destroy the country and why you should vote for this party or that party.  However with all these efforts, it is starting to look like all signs point to huge Republican victories in the next two weeks.

Neither party is popular. But likely voters view the GOP a bit more positively than they do the Democrats. Slightly more say they will vote for the Republican congressional candidate in their district over the Democrat. And most think the GOP will win control of Congress from the Democrats.

Most are concerned with the state the country is in with unemployment and not much they can see is being done about it.


President Obama Job Approval

Poll Date Sample Approve Disapprove Spread
RCP Average 10/5 – 10/19 45.9 49.6 -3.7
Gallup 10/17 – 10/19 1547 A 46 46 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 10/17 – 10/19 1500 LV 47 52 -5
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/14 – 10/18 1000 RV 47 49 -2
Associated Press/GfK 10/13 – 10/18 1501 A 49 50 -1
FOX News 10/11 – 10/13 1200 RV 43 47 -4
Reuters/Ipsos 10/7 – 10/11 1038 A 43 53 -10
Bloomberg 10/7 – 10/10 721 LV 47 48 -1
CNN/Opinion Research 10/5 – 10/7 1008 A 45 52 -7

See All President Obama Job Approval Polling Data

“If we get some new blood in there who will do what the people want, maybe this can get turned around,” Sharon Klawender bemoans outrageous spending in Washington and dismisses “stupid projects” paid for by Obama’s economic stimulus plan. “Jobs are important,” she says. “Houses left and right are being foreclosed.”

With all this resentment towards the current administration, you would think that Obama would be trying to do everything he can to get more people to vote Democrat…right?  Well he is certainly making himself known in cities and  rallying for Democrats to show strong support for the Democrat candidates running in this mid-term election race.

In the two weeks before the Nov. 2 midterms, Obama has focused on helping his party energize its demoralized base, traveling to seven states that delivered him double-digit margins of victory two years ago and to comfortable venues like big-city stadiums and university campuses.

But he is overlooking a very important group of people that he needs to focus on….

He missed Joe the plumber, Sharon Klawender, all the soccer moms, and other people who make up that disapproval rating.  These are the white working-class Americans and they have shown they are not happy.

Obama has embarked on a series of quick trips and “backyard barbecues” in purple-red zones like St. Louis, Charlotte, Kansas City, Richmond and Columbus.

But by necessity, they have taken a back seat to Obama’s central strategy in 2010 of pumping up turnout among blacks, Latinos, urban voters, union members and educated whites.

This group will be key in his 2012 election and he is ignoring it for his party’s political base.  He is concentrating on the Democratic base and trying to mobilize them to get out and vote.  A traditionally Republican strategy developed by Karl Rove the base strategy focuses on “increasing turnout from the party’s [Democratic] base.”  By concentrating on the already strong base, he runs the risk of missing out on the votes that helped him win the election in 2008, the women and white independent voters who are  turning away from him.

Twice as many non-college-educated whites (60 percent) now plan to vote for a Republican this year than a Democrat (31 percent). And approval of Obama’s handling of the economy has tanked by 20 percentage points among white Democrats since April, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll taken earlier this month.

Obama needs to realize what is on the table in front of him, an angry country that doesn’t want to be ignored but feel like they are.  If Obama wants to win in the 2012 election he needs to get to the swing voters and bring them over to the Democratic side.  However, I think that the 2010 elections will be an excellent predictor of how people will vote in the 2012 presidential elections.  The fact is, people are upset and they are tired of the empty promises, stand still economy, and ever climbing unemployment.  They are ready for some new change and that just might be in the form of the GOP.