The Colorado Governor’s race is hot! The issues that the candidates support have been overshadowed by a last minute party change and an assault to one of the candidates’ character. The top three candidates for the Governor’s seat are Democrat John Hickenlooper, Republican Dan Maes, and Tom Tancredo of the American Constitution Party. RealClearPolitics has Denver mayor, John Hickenlooper, soaring past his opponents in all of the major polls.
| Poll | Date | Sample | Hickenlooper (D) | Maes (R) | Tancredo | Spread |
| RCP Average | 8/7 – 8/29 | — | 43.8 | 28.8 | 16.0 | Hickenlooper +15.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/29 – 8/29 | 750 LV | 40 | 32 | 9 | Hickenlooper +8 |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | 8/25 – 8/26 | 954 LV | 46 | 27 | 17 | Hickenlooper +19 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 8/20 – 8/22 | 453 LV | 41 | 33 | 16 | Hickenlooper +8 |
| PPP (D) | 8/7 – 8/8 | 1015 RV | 48 | 23 | 22 | Hickenlooper +25 |
I would like to explore whether John Hickenlooper’s expected success in this race is due to his political platform or due to the other circumstances surrounding this race such as Dan Maes being a weak Republican candidate and Tom Tancredo splitting the Republican vote.
What is Hickenlooper about?
As mayor of Denver, John Hickenlooper is proud of his progressive vision. He has helped to make Denver an appealing city to the entire world. His Facebook account lists his favorite quote as, “With public sentiment nothing can fail. Without it nothing can succeed. Consequently, he who molds public sentiment goes deeper than he who enacts statutes or pronounces decisions.” — Abraham Lincoln. I think this being his favorite quote speaks volumes to his politics. The people of Denver seem to be happy with the direction the city has taken since he has become mayor. He has helped with the revitalization of LoDo, the stadium, the convention center, green business, Denver bike share, he has had bipartisan support…would all of these things be enough to win the Governor’s seat without the drama surrounding the race?
Is Maes a Strong GOP Candidate?
Dan Maes narrowly beat opponent Scott McInnis in the Republican primary due to the infamous plagiarism revelation. Maes was a Tea Party darling, but has since lost their support. Most of his Republican and grassroots backers have also rescinded their support according to DenverPost.com. However, he refuses to step down from the race even with all of the calls to do so. The following video gives his explanation regarding the issues his critics have brought to the attention of voters.
Persistent Tom
Tom Tancredo outlines his politics in his Contract with Colorado. Many people are familiar with his ideas because of his former jobs in government. Critics fault him with splitting the Republican vote and ultimately taking the Governor’s chair away from the Republican Party. Hickenlooper and Maes have marginalized his attempt to run for Governor of Colorado by not inviting him to the remaining debates. I believe he has marginalized his own campaign by stating he will take his name of the ticket if Maes does. This game of “I-will-if-he-does” is self-serving and not in the best interest of the Republican Party. Tuesday, a couple of voters filed a lawsuit against Tancredo to stop him from running for governor. However, a reprint of the ballot is highly unlikely.
And So…
Tom Tancredo is messing it up for the Republicans, but so is Dan Maes. Maybe the Republicans messed it up for themselves by not selecting stronger candidates. Hickenlooper is a strong candidate for the Democrats but as the RealClearPolitics average poll numbers suggest, if you add the numbers of Maes and Tancredo, that number is higher than Hickenlooper’s. Either way, if the ticket stands as is, Hickenlooper is sure to win the Governor’s seat in Colorado.
UCD on Election 2010 
bjb77
September 12, 2010
I think that the polls have it right in this race. Hickenloopers success is a combination of two things. The main reason is that the Republican party has nominated a weak candidate that at first glance appears goofy and has a tendency to embellish his past. (Particularly his police service.) The other reason is that Tancredo is splitting the conservative vote. I am willing to bet though that come November, Tancredo will take the majority of the Republican/conservative vote. Having Maes come in last. Yet Tancredo’s success will not be enough to trump Hickenlooper. Maes continues to hurt himself with just about everything he says. In a year that appears to be on Republicans side, they have destroyed their chances already.
JeannaG
November 4, 2010
You were right. Tancredo took the conservative vote majorly and the Republicans definitely destroyed their chance!
Tony Robinson
September 13, 2010
Jeanna: An interesting post with some good data (the polling spread sheet and the video of Maes) and some clever style points (“Persistent Tom” is a great and applicable moniker!). I think you’re right that Tancredo’s odd campaign style and “I will if he will” strategy doesn’t make him seem very high-minded.
I think your final analysis that Hickenloooper is likely to win because of the weakness and disorganization on the GOP side is almost surely right, but I also think you don’t delve deeply enough into the true strenghts of Hickenlooper, regardless of GOP weakness. You talk a bit about Hick’s platform, but not much, and you cite a bit of a strange quote as evidence of his success (the Lincoln quote). But that Lincoln quote talks about how great politicians should mold and shape public opinion, as some sort of great and inspired leader–which is the opposite of how Hickenlooper actually leads. Hick is not a leader out in front seeking to shape public opinion, but is a bit of a “lay low” politician who can run as a common sense anti-politician–the very source of his strength. He gains ground because he runs as a quirky outsider, not as a bold leader out to shape the opinions of the state. It’s also important to note that his particular style allows him to run without mentioning the fact that he’s a Democratic, a real strength in this climate. So I think a bit more about Hick’s style and strengths would have improved the post a bit and helped readers understand better why he’s running so far ahead.
JeannaG
November 4, 2010
I understand why you may think the quote I chose is strange, but I chose it because it is Hickenlooper’s favorite quote. Maybe it is the opposite of how he actually leads, but maybe it is the way he envisions his leadership. I agree he runs as a quirky outsider, but I believe he does try to shape opinions of the state with his policies. I agree I did not delve deeply enough into who is John Hickenlooper. Maybe that would be a good future blog.